Humanity faces increasing threats of diseases and poverty in today’s world. The relationship between macroeconomics and human health has once again become a significant concern for countries around the globe. The interconnectedness between the two is increasingly evident. Economic prosperity provides better healthcare and living conditions, contributing to improved health levels. Vice versa, a healthy workforce is the driving force for economic growth and is the cornerstone of societal progress.
On January 22, 2024, the second session of the inaugural "Global Health Development Cross-Strait Forum" focusing on "Macroeconomics and Human Health” invited scholars, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and other guests from different fields across the Taiwan Strait to discuss the relationship between macroeconomics and human health. The event was chaired by Xuezhen Qin, Associate Dean of the School of Economics and Associate Dean of the Institute for Global Health Development at Peking University.
The overall improvement of the Chinese economy has led to significant demands in areas such as education, healthcare, and elderly care.
Guest Introduction:
Bi Jingquan, Executive Associate Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), and Deputy Director of the Economic Committee.
Bi Jingquan delivered a keynote speech analyzing the development trend of the Chinese economy. He proposed relevant ideas on six industries and fields related to macroeconomics and public health. Mr. Bi believes, that "we must evaluate the consistency of various aspects involving the research and development, registration, production, use, and payment of biopharmaceuticals according to the industry’s requirements. Concerted efforts and full-chain support are necessary to help this industry drive economic development and benefit the masses."
After experiencing a stable transition period following the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, the overall Chinese economy has rebounded and improved. In 2023, the national GDP reached 126 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year, 2.2 percentage points higher than in 2022, and still relatively high among various countries in the world. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in China were 47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Fixed asset investment was 50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Total imports and exports were 42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Among them, exports were 24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% while imports were 18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. The consumer price index rose by 0.2%.
Mr. Bi pointed out that the main problems facing the Chinese economy include real estate's impact on overall economic growth, local government debt, insufficient confidence among market entities, and unresolved weak expectations. In December last year, the Central Economic Work Conference set comprehensive plans for this year's work, emphasizing that promoting Chinese-style modernization should be the greatest goal with high-quality development as the primary task. It emphasized the development of emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy. The objectives also focus on opening new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences and exploring potential demands in urban underground pipeline reconstruction. Farmer urbanization, education, healthcare, and elderly care are also addressed. The guidelines especially emphasized enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation and incorporating non-economic policies into the evaluation of macroeconomic policy orientation.
Bi Jingquan gave several suggestions regarding industries related to macroeconomics and public health, including increasing investment, accelerating development, boosting market confidence, and improving market expectations. These suggestions include promoting the development of the biopharmaceutical industry, increasing the supply of medical, educational, and elderly care services, promoting farmer urbanization, and conducting large-scale urban underground pipeline construction.
He believes that the above six areas are industries and fields related to public health, all of which have demand but insufficient supply or severe supply shortages. As Mr. Bi stated, if people carefully design plans, and organize implementation meticulously, they will surely achieve the desired, everlasting results.
Characteristics of China's economic operation in 2023.
Guest Introduction:
Xu Xianchun, renowned statistician in China, currently a member of the Technical Advisory Group for the Global International Comparison Program. He previously served as the Deputy Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, Chair of the Chinese Technical Committee of the APEC Trade in Value Added Project, Professor at the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, and Director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center at Tsinghua University.
Statistician Xu Xianchun elaborated on the characteristics of China's economic operation in 2023 from four perspectives: production, demand, income, and prices.
From the production perspective, the economic operation exhibited the following characteristics:
1. Continuous recovery in economic growth: In 2023, GDP grew by 5.2%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year. GDP growth rates in each quarter were 4.5%, 6.3%, 4.9%, and 5.2%, respectively, with growth rates increasing each quarter after adjusting for the low base effect in the second quarter of 2022.
2. Significant role of the secondary industry: The value added of the secondary industry grew by 4.7% in 2023, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous year. Growth rates in each quarter were 3.3%, 5.2%, 4.6%, and 5.5%, respectively, with growth rates increasing each quarter after adjusting for the low base effect in the second quarter of 2022.
3. Contribution of the tertiary industry to economic growth: The value added of the tertiary industry grew by 5.8% in 2023, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over the previous year, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three industries.
From the demand perspective, economic operations exhibited the following characteristics:
1. Increased role of consumption in driving economic growth: Consumption demand contributed 82.5% to economic growth in 2023, an increase of 43.1 percentage points over the previous year.
2. Decreased contribution of investment to economic growth: Investment demand contributed 28.9% to economic growth in 2023, a decrease of 17.9 percentage points over the previous year.
3. Continued weakening of net export demand: Net export demand contributed -11.4% to economic growth in 2023, dragging down economic growth by 0.6 percentage points.
From the income perspective, the economic operation exhibited the following characteristics:
1. Stable increase in residents' income: The per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.3% nominally and 6.1% in real terms in 2023, with rural residents' income growing faster than that of urban residents'.
2. Decrease in total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, with the rate of decline narrowing: Total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 2.3% in 2023, with the rate of decline narrowing by 20.6 percentage points compared to the period between January and February.
From the price perspective, two characteristics were observed:
1. Significant decrease in consumer prices: The CPI increased by 0.2% in 2023, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. Notably, food prices decreased by 0.3%, and energy prices decreased by 2.6%.
2. Continued decrease in producer prices, with the rate of decline narrowing: The PPI decreased by 3.0% in 2023, with the rate of decline narrowing in the second half of the year due to factors such as declining international commodity prices and higher base effects from the previous year.
Education can improve the quality of life.
Guest Introduction:
Yi Junjian, distinguished professor at Peking University's Yenching Academy and a professor of economics at the National School of Development. He is also a dual-appointed professor at the Peking University Institute for Global Health and Development. He was mentored by two Nobel laureates in economics, James Heckman and Gary Becker. His research focuses primarily on health and medical economics, big data analysis in healthcare, artificial intelligence economics, human capital theory, labor and population economics, development economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics.
Professor Yi Junjian shared a research study titled "How Education Improves Quality of Life," which analyzed Taiwan's National Health Insurance data. Modern economic growth is driven by human capital, with education and health being its main components. Investing in education can enhance productivity and innovation, thereby driving economic development. Professor Yi revealed the multidimensional characteristics of the concept of “quality of life” by describing the research background and challenges faced.
The study used Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to measure quality of life, consisting of two parts: years lost due to premature death and years lost due to disability. Professor Yi then elaborated on the specific process of constructing the quality-of-life index.
For research methodology, Professor Yi utilized a regression discontinuity approach based on the implementation of Taiwan's Compulsory Education Act. The results showed that educational reforms in Taiwan led to an average increase of about 0.31 years in people's years of education, significantly improving beneficiaries’ quality of life. For every additional year of education, the loss of quality-adjusted life years due to disability decreased by about 0.68 years, and the loss due to death decreased by about 0.5 years, resulting in a total decrease of approximately 1.2 years in life years lost. Furthermore, Professor Yi's research revealed the causal relationship between education and quality of life, primarily achieved through knowledge acquisition and improvement in health behaviors.
Overall, Professor Yi's study not only provides profound insights into the role of education in
enhancing quality of life but also offers valuable information for policymakers in education.
In the roundtable discussion segment, the following individuals elaborated on their views, suggestions, and research regarding the relationship between macroeconomics and human health.
Professor Huang Cheng, dual-appointed professor at the Institute for Global Health and Development and the School of Economics at Peking University
Li Qing, Vice President of the China Economic System Reform Association
Associate Professor Xie Danxia, Deputy Secretary-General of the Public Health and Preventive Medicine Promotion Project of the China Association for Labor and Social Security, Director of the Institute of Economics at Tsinghua University's School of Social Sciences
Assistant Professor Pan Yuhang from Peking University's Institute for Global Health and Development
During the roundtable dialogue, attendees engaged in thorough discussions and exchanges regarding the viewpoints and research presented by the speakers.
(Interpreted by Waverly Shi)
