时间：12月16日（周三）10:00-11:30

地点：北京大学国家发展研究院万众楼一层大教室

报告一：中国扶贫政策对心脑血管疾病死亡率的影响研究

主讲：杨涵墨，国发院2018级博士生，研究领域为健康经济学与劳动经济学

This paper estimates the impact of the 8-7 Plan, a large-scale poverty alleviation program in China during 1994-2000, on the mortality rate from cardiovascular disease (CVD). The program placement was mainly based on whether the rural income per capita of the county fell below a pair of poverty lines, which allows the application of a combination of regression discontinuity (RD) design and difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Using data collected from National Disease Surveillance Points System (DSPS), the analysis suggests that the 8-7 Plan decelerated the mortality rate from ischaemic heart diseases (IHD) for both genders, and the effect is stronger for women. Further analysis of the location reveals that a range of 82.7% to 92.2% of the deceleration of the mortality from IHD and cerebrovascular diseases for women attributes to the deceleration of death occurred at home. Our heterogeneity analyses results show that women and older people benefited more from the 8-7 program in terms of IHD and cerebrovascular diseases.

报告二：医疗保险与家庭资产配置：来自城乡居民大病保险的证据

主讲：王瀚洋，北京大学经济学院2017级风险管理与保险学专业博士生，研究领域为巨灾风险管理、医疗保险

大病保险是我国解决城乡居民因病致贫、因病返贫”问题的一项重要的社会医疗保险政策。本文基于2015年城乡居民大病保险的政策冲击，构建了一个含金融风险资产、无风险资产和房产的家庭资产配置模型，通过数值求解，从理论上提出假说，大病保险和房产有替代关系，大病保险政策的出台，抑制了家庭房产投资，提升了家庭无风险资产比例，对家庭金融风险投资的影响较小。然后，本文利用 2011-2017 年中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS），结合匹配法和倍差法，实证检验了理论假说，并探讨了大病保险影响家庭资产配置的微观机制，以及这种影响在不同特征家庭的表现差异。本文的研究结果揭示了社会医疗保险政策在家庭资产配置中扮演的角色。

报告三：性别比, 承诺，与家庭内部议价能力——基于中国计划生育政策的实证研究

主讲：刘潇，国发院2016级博士生，研究领域为家庭经济学与劳动经济学

Employing the significant shifts in sex ratio over a relatively brief period after one-child policy (OCP) in China, as well as the different implementation of the policy across provinces with various proportion of ethnic minorities, this paper establishes that imbalanced sex ratio, by altering the spouses' situation on the remarriage market, influences the balance of power between husband and wife, thus affecting the welfare of the elderly by changing the resource allocated towards husband's parents versus wife's parents. As most major household decisions often involve some commitment from the spouses, this paper further investigates the type of commitment that prevails by disentangling the effect of sex ratio at marriage and current sex ratio. We find that while the market conditions at the date of marriage do have a lasting impact on household behavior, this impact tends to fade away with time. In the long term, the impact of the current sex ratio outweighs that of sex ratio at marriage. These findings are consistent with the predictions by limited commitment model, which recognizes that an individual's ability to commit may not be unlimited; as a result, individuals may, at some period and in some states of the world, face binding participation constraints. Yet they fully exploit all mutually beneficial trade possibilities that remain feasible despite these limitations.